ncaa wcbb

teams

NCAA D1 women's basketball team strength board.

Team strength derived from per-player Bayesian posteriors → minutes-weighted team offense. Defense is empirical (points allowed per game). net_rating is the rating used by the matchup predictor — combined with HFA = 4.16 and σ = 14.46 it gives walk-forward 2025 OOS accuracy of 70.4% / log-loss 0.574.

Resolve NCAA Women's Basketball team projections — team SRS, pace, projected wins.
#	team	N	off rtg	def rtg	net rtg	off z	def z	strength z
1	UConn Huskies	12	83.2	52.2	31.04	2.24	2.30	4.53
2	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	9	89.0	61.9	27.05	2.94	0.52	3.46
3	Baylor Bears	11	87.0	60.2	26.75	2.70	0.83	3.52
4	USC Trojans	10	85.2	59.4	25.86	2.48	0.99	3.47
5	South Carolina Gamecocks	13	83.2	58.0	25.18	2.24	1.23	3.47
6	Texas Longhorns	12	80.8	56.1	24.70	1.95	1.57	3.52
7	LSU Tigers	12	89.7	65.7	23.98	3.02	-0.16	2.86
8	Kansas State Wildcats	10	82.1	58.9	23.22	2.10	1.08	3.18
9	Cleveland State Vikings	12	82.0	60.3	21.68	2.08	0.82	2.91
10	TCU Horned Frogs	9	78.0	57.6	20.34	1.60	1.31	2.91
11	Florida Gulf Coast Eagles	13	74.0	54.0	19.98	1.12	1.96	3.08
12	Oklahoma Sooners	13	88.0	68.9	19.07	2.81	-0.74	2.07
13	West Virginia Mountaineers	11	74.5	55.7	18.83	1.18	1.66	2.84
14	Fairfield Stags	12	74.1	55.4	18.70	1.13	1.71	2.84
15	South Dakota State Jackrabbits	11	80.4	62.4	17.92	1.89	0.43	2.32
16	Charleston Cougars	12	74.2	56.5	17.75	1.14	1.52	2.66
17	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons	11	76.4	59.1	17.29	1.41	1.03	2.44
18	Harvard Crimson	12	67.5	50.7	16.87	0.33	2.57	2.90
19	Ole Miss Rebels	11	75.8	59.1	16.72	1.34	1.03	2.37
20	Mississippi State Bulldogs	10	80.8	64.2	16.70	1.95	0.12	2.07
21	Duke Blue Devils	10	72.6	56.5	16.14	0.95	1.51	2.46
22	Maryland Terrapins	11	86.6	70.5	16.12	2.65	-1.04	1.61
23	Grand Canyon Lopes	12	73.8	57.9	15.97	1.10	1.26	2.36
24	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	8	67.8	52.0	15.75	0.36	2.32	2.69
25	UTSA Roadrunners	14	71.8	56.3	15.50	0.85	1.54	2.40